Restaurants’ at-home growth below inflation in March as consumers count their costs 

British restaurant groups recorded a third consecutive month of below-inflation organic growth in at-home sales in March, the latest NIQ Hospitality at Home Tracker reveals.

The Tracker, powered by CGA intelligence, shows like-for-like sales across the month were only 1.9% ahead of March 2025. After modest growth of 2.7% and 0.1% in January and February respectively, it suggests many consumers have been keeping a close eye on their spending in early 2026. Their confidence is likely to fall further as households anticipate the impact on many energy related costs of the ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.

The new Hospitality at Home Tracker highlights consumers’ ongoing migration from takeaways to the convenience of deliveries. Restaurants’ delivery sales in March were 6.3% ahead of March 2025 on a like-for-like basis, but the value of takeaway and click-and-collect orders fell by 8.6%. This was the 12th successive month of negative numbers. It means that takeaways generated 5.1% of spending with restaurants in March, while deliveries accounted for 13.5%.

The figures also reveal that some consumers have switched from at-home ordering to eating out as the weather improves. The separate NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker indicates a modest year-on-year increase in restaurant groups’ dine-in sales in March.

Trends are also much better on a total sales basis. Adding in new restaurants, or ones where deliveries and takeaways have been launched for the first time, year-on- year growth reached 11.8% in March.

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at NIQ, said: “Whether eating out or ordering in, consumers have clearly been putting a tight lid on their spending in the first quarter of 2026. Slow organic growth means restaurants are currently relying on higher prices and new openings to shore up at-home channels, and the steep drop in takeaway orders is a cause for concern. We are likely to see some costs rise sharply for consumers and operators alike in the next few months, and real-terms growth will continue to be very hard earned.”